The Currency Newshound

The web’s only RV-O-Meter will gauge the progress of the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar as news, information, and intel is made available.

As of September 1, 2011 the RV-O-Meter remains at a high-grade warning to “Prepare for Cash In”

The web’ s first and only RV-O-Meter increased slightly to a weighted confidence level of 99.1%; The highest recorded level ever on the RV-O-Meter to date.

The RV-O-Meter is adjusted based on positive or negative significant events, achievements, and confidence levels.

The Latest on Iraqi Politics

Over the past few weeks Iraqi leaders have worked successfully in determining an element of cooperation which took place in a series of meetings to resolve issues related to the 9-month old Barzani Initiative (Erbil Agreement).

On July 9th and again on August 2nd President Talabani called to summit the Iraqi leaders Prime Minister Maliki and Iraqi List leader Allawi to discuss the terms of the Erbil Agreement as well as the future of the US Troops in Iraq.

The Erbil Agreement consisted of 15 items but most importantly of those items include the decision as to how the security ministers are to be selected as well as the implementation of the Council for Strategic Policy.

The Council for Strategic Policy was initially created by US and Iraqi mediators to appease Allawi and allow Maliki to assume the role as prime minister which would end a heavily contested political tie. However the terms of the Barzani Initiative/Erbil Agreement has since been pushed aside by Maliki and his party leaving Allawi and the Iraqi List fighting for fair representation and national partnership.

The last meeting on August 2nd appears to be the most successful of all summits with all parties giving the thumbs up to the original terms. Maliki and Allawi both agreed to form a joint committee to settle the two contested issues of the Erbil Agreement.

It would appear a third meeting of political leaders will be organized sometime after the Eid holiday or after September 5th. Both parties further appear to have candidates selected or somewhat selected for presentation to the Prime Minister. The NCSP is still under debate but moving forward.

• See The Currency Newshound Calendar
• Copy of the National Council of the Strategic Policies Draft Law
• Iraqi Parliament end the first reading of the bill of the National Council of the Supreme policies
• Parliament voted in principle to the law of the Council of Strategic Policies
• Second reading of NCSP draft law will be after Eid holiday
• Saadoun al-Dulaimi up his duties as Minister of Defense by proxy
• Deputy: Iraqi leaders resume their meeting at the home of Talabani after the Eid holiday

Furthermore, the August 11th agenda included the long awaited introduction of the revised HCL (oil and gas bill). The parliamentary committee made the desired changes to the draft law and will be presented to parliament for vote sometime after the Eid holiday.

• GOI completes amendments to HCL / Oil and Gas draft law
• Project to the parliament after Eid .. complement the government amendments to the law of oil and gas
• UPI: Iraq reviews oil and natural gas law
• Iraqi Cabinet approves and refers Oil and Gas Law (HCL) to Parliament for vote

Both leading parties have submitted a list of candidates to Prime Minister Maliki to fill the security minister seats. The Iraqi List has been entitled to provide candidates for the Minister of Defense while the National Alliance is entitled to provide candidates to fill the Minister of Interior and National Security. It appears under the terms of the Talabani Summit of Maliki declines any candidate for a ministry seat he can appoint a candidate of his choice either by proxy until further agreement by the parties or via proxy permanently. Due to recent uprisings and security concerns Maliki did appoint a defense minister by proxy by only temporarily.

At the present time a rare witness of national partnership appears to be taking place in Iraqi politics…But then it could very will be initiated by the demands (sorry suggestion) by outside entities such as the US State Department, US Defense Department, White House, or perhaps the UN Security Council.

The Latest on Iraq-Kuwait

The Port of Mubarak located in Kuwait has been the point of much debate between Iraq and Kuwait for nearly three months. Iraq for several years has planned to construct a multi-dock shipping port located at the Port Faw however the plans are only on paper without much implementation or funding. Kuwait has moved fast and has begun development on a similar project at the Port of Mubarek which shares a canal with Iraq.

Iraqi citizens, economist, and leaders all assert the Kuwait development will deprive Iraq of planned revenue, violates maritime rights, and impedes the traffic flow in the narrow channel furthermore violates UN Resolution 833 which provides terms protecting both Iraq and Kuwait from border encroachments politically, militarily, or economically.

Kuwait has expressed the port to be within its boundaries and does not encroach or impede on Iraqi interests.

The port issue is hotly contested and Iraq has requested the assistance of the UN Security Council to aid by mediation however will send a committee to Kuwait Sunday August 14th to discuss the elements of the port development with Kuwaiti officials.

• Iraq committee will head to Kuwait Sunday to discuss Mubarak Port details
• Iraq-Kuwait Committee convenes to settle suspended dossiers on Sunday

Representatives from both country’s express words of peace and alliance. Kuwait has suggested it wants to aid Iraq in its exit from UNSC sanctions however issues such as the port are at the forefront of all negotiations causing setbacks to other crucial items related to ending the Kuwait related issues of Chapter VII.

If the committee returns with unfavorable comments about the Kuwait port development it would be safe to assume the matter will be forwarded to UN officials for clarification or mediation. A full discussion regarding this matter is set for sometime after the Eid Holiday.

Latest on Chapter VII Issues

Regardless of what you are hearing, Chapter VII sanctions are not completely lifted from Iraq. Many speculated the sanctions would lift during the UNAMI adoptions meeting last month however the meeting was simply that..an “adoptions” meeting to enact the extension of UNAMI effort an additional 12 months.

The extension of UNAMI efforts will not delay or impede the lifting of Chapter VII sanctions whatsoever. The UNAMI adoptions report stated “the UN Security Council requested the Secretary-General to report back every four months on progress in fulfilling all the Mission’s responsibilities,expressing the intention to review its mandate in 12 months or earlier, as requested by the Government of Iraq“. This would suggest Iraq can call for the UN Security Council to review its efforts and standing with the UNSC at anytime during the 12-month extension. Keep in mind the UNAMI mission has been extended multiple times since its inception and if CH VII sanctions could not be lifted while under the extension…the sanctions lifted in December 2010 would have never occurred.

• UNSC adopts UNAMI extension; Urges Iraq to meet its outstanding CH VII obligations

During the UNAMI briefing Ed Melkert made a personal statement that he believed Iraq should join the international community however the words expressed by the UN Sec General Ban Ki-moon as well as the UNSC was clear Iraq must meet the objectives in order to exit Chapter VII sanctions. Therefore Iraq remains under Chapter VII sanctions.

• UN Webcast Video: http://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/webcast/2011/07/iraq-security-council-meeting.html

Iraq emerged from partial sanctions in December 2010 which the UNSC often called “trade sanctions”. It is highly probable these particular sanctions are significant enough to allow Iraq to move forward with the RV or strengthening of its currency. At this point it is only speculation - Nobody truly knows for sure.

• December 15, 2010: CNN: U.N. Security Council ends major sanctions on Iraq

The Latest on the Central Bank of Iraq

As you are aware several articles have been posted about the Iraqi Currency and the CBI’s plan to ‘restructure’ or ‘revamp’ the dinar.

The articles are confusing, possibly misleading, and the translation is not so good. Essentially, the CBI has stated it has completed its study on the “Dropping of the Zero’s” and has determined it to be essential to the country’s future monetary policy.

The latest articles suggest the CBI will “soon” issue new coins in its currency line up. No specific date was provided however some articles used the (translated) phrase ”restructure… beginning this week”. This phrase has many dinar speculators across the internet wondering if the CBI will be issuing smaller denoms sometime soon.

I can honestly say the articles are too conflicted collectively to provide a clear answer as to the time frame the new coins will be issued. However it is clear the CBI is moving fast to alter its monetary policy. The CBI’s intent is spreading over the Arab region as well as making news on major news services such as Reuters. A year ago if an article surfaced regarding the Iraqi Dinar it was a rare and most interesting find. Today while an article regarding the Iraqi Dinar remains interesting it has become more common to see these news stories surface sometimes 3 or 4 during a week.

What does this all mean? Personally I believe it demonstrates the initiative the CBI is taking to activate the new monetary system in Iraq.

An archive of “Dropping of the Zero’s” related articles can be found by following this LINK

• Iraqi Dinar will regain glory and coins in our pockets soon
• Reuters: Iraq ‘plans to trim zeros from currency’
• World Union of Arab Bankers: CBI is preparing to replace the currency soon

Overall

The political climate, for the time being, seems somewhat calm..oddly calm reflecting a national partnership type attitude needed in order to complete the Prime Minister’s cabinet. But some discourse exists.

The economic climate in Iraq is busting at the seams with companies wanting to provide supply to a much needed demand for services and goods. Oil companies are bidding, drilling, and oil prices still remain at all time highs.

The winds of promise combined with a poor job supply and high rates of poverty creates increased inflation - a repressed Iraqi dinar is forcing inflation over 7% possibly even higher during the Ramadan holiday.

The CBI has heavy amounts of foreign currency reserves (#37 out of 95 countries). The vast amount of foreign currency investment is not reflective in the strength of the Iraq Dinar exchange rate - this can create higher rates of inflation as well.

I believe, in time, continued inflationary hikes will force the CBI to adjust monetary policies. This is usually conducted by adjusting prime lending rates, interest rates, etc. However in a country that is cash dominant interest rates have minimal bearing on the economy. This would leave the CBI with only minimal options to combat inflation… i.e: alter the exchange rate

As Iraq moves forward with political change, economic promise, and creation of relationships globally with trade agreements and investment guarantees the economy will begin to surge and if the CBI lags behind without altering its monetary policy its neglect will only impede the progress the country is making on a global scale

Whats left and its status….

Key elements which remain include (completion of all or part of this list could result in the RV):

• DFI Exit Strategy - In process. Iraq,US,UN, and IMF are fortifying the exit strategy now preparing for June 30
• Seating a complete government (Security Ministers) - This is being debated and will soon be brought to the Iraqi Parliament.
• Strategic Council of Policy Law, Allawi elected chairman - This is now in parliament under debate
• Vote on investment law - Articles would suggest this is on the next parliamentary session agenda
• Vote on oil and gas law (HCL) - Articles would suggest this is on the next parliamentary session agenda
• Changes in CBI Monetary Policy (presentation of laws, passage of law)
• Kuwait/Iraq resolve outstanding issues - Issues regarding demarcation of the border, missing bodies, and return of antiquities appear to being near resolution. However the recent events involving the construction of Mubark Port in Kuwait has started some more talks regarding demarcation issues. Furthermore, Kuwait announced recently it is constructing a nuclear plant 30 km off the Iraq border which has created some controversy. This may require UNSC intervention if diplomatic negotiations between the two countries fail.
• Release from UNSC Chapter VII - Articles suggest this will happen sometime in 2011 some as early as this summer…this is pending Iraq-Kuwait relations.
• Becoming a full member of the WTO (ascension) - Iraq is currently in process of seeking full membership. This will likely occur post Chapter VII release.
• Enact Custom Tarrif Law (IMF agreement): Recent articles would suggest the law has been passed but will not be enforced until 2012 LINK
• The unknown factor: This simply means there could be an element(s) which exist that are unknown

Trends

RV-O-Meter Summary

Considering the overall conditions in Iraq the RV-O-Meter increased slightly to 99.1%.

Key factors such as seating of the entire Maliki cabinet, a complete release from Chapter VII sanctions, and certain laws and policy changes will reflect major strides in the RV progress as well upward movement in the RV-O-Meter. If a situation arises which is determined to be negative toward the progress of the RV this adverse reaction will affect the RV-O-Meter as well.

Conclusion

This has been a long hard road for many IQD investors. The ups and downs have been more nauseating than the fearful roller coaster ride you took as a kid. But like the carnival ride this shall too end.

I believe we are in the final chapters of this investment. Everything we have been looking for to occur has happened or in the process of happening.

There is truly not much to say other than find that small piece of patience still left in your body and lean on it just a little while longer. Keep your faith. This is happening.

A full RV update will be revised when a significant event occurs.

I would like to thank each person who follows Currency Newshound / IQD News via the blog, Twitter, and Facebook.

Thank you and soon we will all have a pocket full of blessings,

Just Hopin

Like always I will caveat this by saying we are dealing with Iraq. Anything can happen that can cause delay as we have witnessed so many times before. While I do not foresee anything delaying this forward movement at this time I reserve the right to downgrade the RV-O-Meter as needed.

• Preparing for Cash In
• RV-O-Meter will alert with due diligence

Rumors and Intel I can’t emphasize enough the facts and headlines alone are encouraging alone without the need of rumors!

As we grow closer and closer to actual events that lead us to the revaluation of the dinar rumors will begin to churn out on a daily basis. Unfortunately good news brings the investor a great deal of rumors and intel to discern.

Please use caution and refrain from jumping at every rumor that surfaces. The past has revealed 9 out of 10 times the statement typically is not true…so therefore use your best judgment.

Each rumor and bit of intel should be taken lightly until events begin to evolve that lend credence to the statement. No rumor or intel is better than the next unless the statement begins to show validity. I remind you to use your own logic and common sense when reading rumors and intel statements including those opinions expressed in the RV-O-Meter update.

I would also like to add that as rumors become more intense and often believable it should not make you dig deeper into your pocket and savings. Investing in currency is a wonderful plan however buying more dinar or any investment outside of your budget or beyond your means all in anticipation the rv to take place based on rumor/intel is not smart investing. Always use your best judgment and never put yourself or family in jeopardy.

The Currency Newshound and its feed on Facebookwill not spread or propagate rumors / intel statements. The Currency Newshound simply follows the news and facts. The Currency Newshound is an advertising/revenue free site and therefore the reader can feel assured any opinion offered is not influenced by ad or support revenue.

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